The conversation around CRE transaction volume has always reflected something deeper than deal counts. It captures conviction. It reflects liquidity. It shows which investors are confident enough to move and which are still on the sidelines waiting for a signal that the cycle has turned.
In a year defined by cautious optimism and selective capital deployment, 2025 is offering hints of stabilization in the U.S. CRE market.
The data is mixed but increasingly directional. Q2 2025 produced the first widely observed lift in activity since the rate-driven slowdown of 2022 and 2023. Buyers and sellers are still calibrating around price., while lenders continue to scrutinize debt terms carefully. All that said, pockets of momentum are giving the market a shape again.
This piece consolidates what we know, what has been published, and what institutional research suggests about CRE transaction volume in 2025 and beyond.
What is transaction volume in real estate?
Transaction volume refers to the total dollar value of property sales within a defined period of time.
In commercial real estate, it’s typically measured quarterly or annually and includes sales across all major asset classes, including multifamily, office, industrial, retail, and hospitality.
Institutional investors use CRE transaction volume by year to benchmark where the market sits within a cycle. A sharp decline in transaction volume tends to signal a pricing disconnect, liquidity constraints, or heightened uncertainty. In contrast, a stable increase usually suggests that price discovery has occurred and underwriting confidence is improving.
What does CRE transaction volume say about the market overall?
Commercial real estate transaction volume operates as a real time barometer of sentiment.
High or rising commercial real estate transaction volume usually indicates that buyers and sellers are aligned on valuation.
Low or declining volume often means the opposite: information gaps, valuation uncertainty, or tightening credit conditions.
These shifts ripple through the market in relatively predictable ways:
- Analysts recalibrate models
- Debt markets adjust spreads
- Operators become more focused on NOI quality and expense performance
In 2025, sentiment has shifted toward cautious optimism. According to Altus Group, both pricing inputs and asset quality stratification became clearer in the first half of the year, which gave investors more confidence to move forward with underwriting and offers. Principal AM observed similar traction, noting that transaction pipelines expanded meaningfully heading into the second half of the year.
For asset managers, developers, and owners, this shift matters. Volume tells you where conviction is building long before cap rates fully recalibrate.
CRE transaction volume analysis: 2025
Below is a structured look at the quarterly data available for 2025. Each quarter includes only published, verifiable information supplemented with directional trends where noted.
Q1 2025
2025 opened with clearer signals than many expected. Looking back, we see a clear picture of a market that found its footing after two tentative years.
According to Altus Group’s Q1 2025 U.S. Investment Transactions report, U.S. CRE transaction volume reached $69.3B in the first quarter.
Key details:
- Volume declined from $89.2B in Q1 2024, but the rate of decline slowed meaningfully
- Transaction counts fell 11.6% QoQ
- Dollar volume fell 8% QoQ
- Multifamily volume dropped nearly 30% YoY
- Industrial remained comparatively resilient
- Office continued to show soft liquidity, with double digit declines in trades
Although transaction volumes in Q1 2025 were lower than a year earlier, pricing inputs were becoming more predictable and bid-ask spreads narrowed slightly from late 2024.
Ultimately, Q1 2025 didn’t represent a rebound. Instead, it represented the completion of a foundation.
The market took two years to process the rate reset. By Q1 2025, the gap between what buyers could underwrite and what sellers were willing to accept narrowed enough for meaningful deal flow to resume.
This created the conditions that allowed Q2 to accelerate.
Q2 2025
Q2 is the first quarter of 2025 where published data shows a measurable positive shift in CRE transaction volume.
Altus Group reported that U.S. commercial property sales reached $115B in Q2 2025. This marked a 3.8% YoY increase, one of the clearest indicators that investors were reentering the market with greater conviction. Data from Principal AM shows that first-half 2025 deal activity was 13% higher than volume in the second half of 2024.
Here’s a breakdown of Q2 2025 transaction volume by asset category:
- Multifamily volume rose 39.5% YoY
- Industrial continued its consistent performance with solid trade activity
- Retail benefited from ongoing strength in necessity driven centers
- Office remained challenged but saw an uptick in trades for high-quality, long-lease-term assets
Experts attributed the improvement in Q2 to clearer pricing signals and a more functional bidding environment. Sellers adjusted expectations, and buyers underwrote with stronger confidence in rent and expense trajectories.
Q2 was the first truly directional quarter of the cycle. It reflected a market transitioning from “price finding” to “price accepting.” Investors weren’t rushing in, but they were moving.
Q3 2025
According to CRE Daily, U.S. commercial real estate transaction activity “jumped” during Q3 of 2025, driven largely by renewed interest in apartments and industrial. Colliers estimated that total U.S. CRE transaction activity landed near $112B for Q3.
CRE Daily cited:
- $43.8B in apartment transaction volume in Q3
- Up 13% YoY
- Up 21% QoQ
While this is a sector specific number, multifamily remains the largest share of national transaction activity, so its movement is a reliable indicator of broader momentum.
Analysts have tended to attribute Q3 deal volume growth to:
- Growing buyer confidence
- More active lender participation
- Improved alignment in underwriting assumptions
- Strength in industrial and grocery anchored retail
- Continued softness in office, although liquidity improved slightly for stabilized assets
CityBiz described investor sentiment as “cautiously constructive,” a shift from the defensive posture of 2023 and early 2024.
Q3 appears to confirm a sustained upward trend. The core takeaway is not the magnitude of the increase but its consistency. The market might not be fully healed, but it is operating again. And that matters.
CRE transaction volume projections
Projections for late 2025 and 2026 rely on credible institutional forecasting, with Deloitte’s 2026 Commercial Real Estate Outlook providing the most widely cited view.
Keep in mind that these are projections. They’re not attempts to predict specific dollar volumes. Instead, they outline the conditions expected to influence CRE transaction volume as the market transitions out of the rate reset period.
Looking ahead, we see several core themes that will shape liquidity and deal activity in the coming year:
1. Credit availability is expected to improve
Deloitte noted that lenders are likely to ease underwriting constraints in 2026 as loan maturities get worked through and asset values stabilize.
Improved credit availability is one of the strongest catalysts for higher commercial real estate transaction volume because it expands the pool of viable buyers.
2. Valuation resets will be mostly complete by mid 2026
According to Deloitte, price discovery reached its most volatile point in 2023 and early 2024.
By 2025, this process began stabilizing.
By 2026, Deloitte expects valuations to be predictable enough to support more consistent deal flow. For investors, this means stronger alignment between underwriting assumptions and achievable pricing.
3. Gradual increase in investor risk appetite
Deloitte anticipates a slow shift toward value-add and opportunistic strategies in 2026 as conviction increases and cap rate stabilization provides more clarity on forward return expectations.
This would support a broader buyer base and higher total transaction volume.
Putting the projections together
Based on these factors, a realistic 2026 trajectory looks like this:
- Q4 2025:
Likely slightly stronger than Q3 based on expanded pipelines and improved pricing alignment. - Early 2026
Expect a measurable rise in transaction velocity as refinancing pressures ease and lenders price debt with greater consistency. - Full year 2026
Total CRE transaction volume should exceed 2025 levels but remain below peak cycle years like 2021.
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